ILLUSTRATIVE OUTPUT · NOT A CLIENT RESULT
Every claim has
a source and owner.
Fictional composite: every company, site, source identifier, observation, and dollar value on this page was constructed to demonstrate the method. Nothing below is realized savings, a testimonial, or a result achieved for a client.
The operating question
A fictional 240-site multi-brand operator sees food-cost variance in ten matched restaurants. Finance cannot yet distinguish normal mix and timing effects from pack conversion, yield, portion, waste, and menu-execution controls. The pilot tests one question: is the controllable opportunity credible enough to fund a rollout?
Evidence ledger
The gross findings are adjusted for overlap before the scale decision. Implementation cost is disclosed separately and is not relabeled as opportunity.
| ID | Finding | Source trail | Low | Base | High | Confidence | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-01 | Vendor pack conversion mismatch | AP-Q1 · ITEM-MAP-v7 · REC-v14 | $64K | $92K | $119K | High | Procurement |
| F-02 | Prep and yield standard variance | POS-Q1 · YIELD-04 · BATCH-22 | $88K | $138K | $197K | Medium | Culinary |
| F-03 | Portion adherence variance | REC-v14 · POS-Q1 · OBS-10 | $44K | $79K | $111K | Medium | Operations |
| F-04 | Unrecorded waste and spoilage | WASTE-Q1 · INV-Q1 · COUNT-13 | $28K | $54K | $76K | Medium | Operations |
| F-05 | Menu contribution and execution mix | POS-Q1 · MENU-v9 · PROMO-Q1 | $19K | $43K | $65K | Validate | Finance |
| Gross annualized findings | $243K | $406K | $568K | Before overlap control | |||
| Less: modeled overlap and double-count control | ($38K) | ($52K) | ($84K) | Finance challenge | |||
| Net credible annualized opportunity | $205K | $354K | $484K | Scale / stop input | |||
Download the sample ledger →CSV · fictional data · formulas documented
Base-case reconciliation
Sum of five source-linked controls.
Prevents yield, portion, and waste from being counted twice.
Credible annualized opportunity before implementation cost.
Training, recipe governance, mapping, and control changes.
($406K gross − $52K overlap) ÷ $65K pilot fee = 5.45× opportunity-to-feeWhat management can challenge
Reproduce
Trace source rows, fiscal periods, annualization, pack conversions, exclusions, and overlap assumptions.
Reject
Remove findings that damage throughput, food safety, guest experience, training capacity, or local execution.
Decide
Stop, extend validation, or fund a deployment with named owners, cost, milestones, and measurement.